WVU football coach Neal Brown explains offensive philosophy
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MORGANTOWN -- We live in a sports world driven with the power of analytics; sort of a paint by numbers method of creating the picture a coach wants to paint.
This, though, is a tricky business.
If analytics really worked every hitter would bat 1.000 and every pitcher would have an ERA of 0.00, which is something we all know to be an impossibility in either direction.
Numbers tell you what happened in the past, not what will happen in the future.
It is a case that was summed up best by Mark Twain many years ago when he borrowed a phrase whose creation remains in doubt but whose truth is undisputed, saying:
"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics."
We bring this up today as we think back on the recently put to rest West Virginia spring football practice and what coach Neal Brown said when asked which numbers he looks at after a football game, which was an invitation to delve into Brown's theory of digging through a garbage truck full of meaningless figures to arrive at those that truly influence the outcome of a football game.
"It starts with turnover margin," Brown began, which threatened to reek of "coach speak." But he was kind enough to go beyond just the raw figures, for he understood that in football, as it is in basketball, it isn't the turnover that kills you but what the turnover leads to.
"It's more points off turnovers," Brown said.
Give up a turnover, you give up a possession. You give up a chance to score points, yes; but what happens off the turnover dictates the extent of the damage.
A fumble, an interception can take away that scoring chance if it occurs in an opponent's territory, but it is far worse when it happens in your own territory, for it is far easier from there to give up a score. It changes not only field position but momentum, and momentum is a very real factor in any kind of athletic contest.
But points off turnovers was only the first of the figures he looked at.
"Second it's explosive plays," he said. "Those two things are the biggest indicators of wins and losses."
Like turnovers that result in points, explosive plays made or allowed change the flow of the game, the momentum. It gets the crowd going if it's for your team and sends them heading for the beer stand or the bathroom if it's the opponent's explosive play.
Really, the effect is no different on offense or defense. Break a long run or give one up, allow a long pass or give one up, run back an interception for a score or a punt or kickoff for a score and the extent of the damage increases expeditiously.
In the offense that WVU has put together, the long gain on the ground is the key element in a high scoring offense.
Once Jahiem White, the freshman sensation, got his game in gear last season when the offense took off. He had been eased into the season as he learned what college football -- both practice and games -- was all about, but once he was there everything offensively fell in place as it affected the passing game as much as the running game.
"We were going to run the football," Brown said, "but it was also going to give us the opportunity to bring defenders into the box so we could throw over the top of them."
The result was that WVU became one of college football's top teams in explosive plays and quarterback Garrett Greene, who possessed a strong arm, was able to use it in situations that screamed out for an explosive pass play.
This built up a huge dilemma for a defensive analyst, for on third-and-5, WVU would show itself to be a run-favoring team, but if they sold out on that, they could -- and, more importantly, would go for -- the explosive score.
All of this added up to a football philosophy upon which the WVU offense came to be based -- the Three Es.
"From a stat standpoint we talk about the Three Es," Brown said, about to explain it. "That's efficiency, explosiveness and errors.
"First is efficiency," he went on, "and that's first down, first plays of a drive, red zone efficiency and third down efficiency."
Gain 6 yards on first down and you open the entire playbook on second down. You can run, pass, try a trick play … you dictate the situation.
Opening a drive -- especially the first of the game and the first of the second half -- makes a statement.
And red-zone efficiency is turning scoring chances into touchdowns and not settling for field goals or, worse yet, coming away with nothing.
Finally, there are errors. Brown isn't talking about missed blocks or dropped passes as much as he is about unforced errors.
"When we mention errors, it's self-induced, pre-snap penalties, turnovers, missed assignments," Brown said.
They understand that you will get beaten individually on a play occasionally; you may have to hold to try and save a sack; but for the center to snap the ball prematurely, for a guard to flinch or a receiver to run the wrong route or the quarterback to make the wrong read … those show up on the analytic sheets as "damn lies."
Sports are filled with "damn lies" hidden as statistics. Take golf's driving average. How far you hit the ball is not nearly as important as how straight you hit it, and a 350-yard drive may look good on a stat sheet but it means nothing if you miss a 5-foot putt.
Same goes for the plus/minus stat in basketball which is supposed to measure a player's effect on the team's performance, plus/minus score while on the court.
Well, let's suggest that players on the floor with Michael Jordan out there had far better plus/minus figures than those who played when Jordan was resting and it had nothing whatsoever to do with their contribution.
Likewise, football's time of possession can be misleading too. While this is a meaningful stat, it can be misinterpreted for a team which puts together a few first downs and then punts and gives up a touchdown in three plays.