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MORGANTOWN -- West Virginia and TCU match three-game winning streaks heading into Saturday night's contest in Fort Worth. There, the Mountaineers will find an opponent that is a couple of rungs up the degree of difficulty ladder from what it faced last week.
Texas Tech got a good bit of attention for its pace of play in the run-up to last week's contest, but TCU's is right in the same neighborhood. The Red Raiders are cranking out three plays per minute (first nationally), but the Frogs are getting the ball snapped 2.76 times every 60 seconds (third). That has allowed them to average 78.5 plays per game, which is far in excess of West Virginia's 68.5. WVU slowed Tech's attack by throttling the Red Raiders on third down — is that the path to success again this week? The loss of Texas Tech starting QB Tyler Shough may have helped the Mountaineers in that regard, but it had held him down for the better part of a quarter, and still had to face Behren Morton, who shredded its defense a year ago.
As is usually the case, there's not just one key or item that can provide the entire answer. The Mountaineers can't allow the Frogs to get in rhythm on offense. They will have to get complementary play from everyone on defense, as it has in the last two weeks. And it simply has to be more productive on offense, and not just play keepaway. WVU is 16th nationally in possessing the ball, averaging 32:45 with the rock. TCU (97th, 28:27) averages far less, but has done more while it has had it.
WVU has continued to battle to find consistency in its passing attack for a variety of reasons, and one of those is the productivity of its wide receivers. The Mountaineers don't have anyone averaging 50 yards receiving per game, and the group has been plagued by drops and an inability to create separation or make contested catches. Devin Carter, Hudson Clement and Preston Fox should all still get their chances, but this may be the week that freshmen and a couple of transfers get their first real chances.
Clement is WVU's top receiver in yards per game, standing 174th with 49 yards per contest. Of his 196 receiving yards on the season, 177 came against Duquesne. That's not to criticize what he has done so far — his breakout game was a great story. It's simply to point out that the Mountaineers don't appear to have a dominant gamebreaker on its receiving corps. However, that doesn't mean all is lost. That group could model itself after the defensive line, which has clearly been greater than the sum of its parts. To do so, every player will have to accept his role, perform well in all facets of the game, and make catches when the opportunities are there. Grumbling about playing time (was there a message being sent when head coach Neal Brown made a comment about everyone wanting the ball on Monday?) or other forms of dissatisfaction would be a critical blow to a team that has won as a group this year.
It's far more likely that WVU could build its passing attack with five or six players grabbing three or four balls per game, as the hopes are for the running game with the four-deep depth chart. That takes a lot of self-sacrifice, and also the ability to make plays from the get-go. It will be a requirement against a TCU team that has offensive weapons across the board, including the Big 12's leader in total offense (QB Chandler Morris) and rushing (Emani Bailey).
There's also the tight end spot to consider. West Virginia has gotten the ball to Kole Taylor some, as he has 11 catches for 146 yards and two TDs through four games, but to help the offense it might need to get him downfield a little more. This is not a call for WVU to bomb the ball downfield indiscriminately, but if it could get him in a vertical seam once or twice a game — and complete the pass — it could serve to help get a safety our of the box. Taylor got behind the defense last week on the lateral and pass play via Traylon Ray, but if it could work off the mostly flat and quick out/in routes that Taylor has been used on, that could help take a little more pressure off the receivers.
How important is the availability of quarterback Garrett Greene to WVU's chances? We could probably crank out a few thousands words of analysis on that topic and still not cover all the angles.
The simplest take is that Greene's running ability, when unhampered by injury, is better than that of Nicco Marchiol, and given the Mountaineers' issues in the passing game (which certainly aren't just on the QBs), his presence might give WVU a little more in terms of offensive options. However, that doesn't mean that WVU can't win with Marchiol behind center. The designed QB draws of last week show that he can run the ball too, and he exhibits every bit as much leadership as Greene does, albeit in a bit of a different manner. Where Greene is more overtly fiery, Marchiol displays a measured approach (This really comes out in his postgame interviews) that has helped the offense stay focused even when it isn't performing well.
Ultimately, there may not be a right answer to this question. West Virginia can win with either quarterback, and while neither may light up the stat sheet over the next few weeks, both have the leadership qualities and intangibles that are necessary at the position. That may bring the question down to issues such as game planning and preparation. The differences between them, starting with the hand with which they throw the ball, leads to enough differences that practices during the week have to be more tailored to their characteristics and strengths. That means that the best decision might come down to one that was made earlier in the week as to how much Greene could practice, and what the Tuesday-Thursday workouts contained.
TCU will have a blackout in effect in the stands for this game, with all fans encouraged to wear that color (or, more correctly, the lack of color). This is the fourth time this season that WVU will play in front of a scheme for dress. The Penn State opener was a helmet stripe game, the Mountaineers have hosted a stripe the stadium and a gold rush, and now the Frogs will go dark for this week's night game.
The Frogs are ranked second nationally in attendance in terms of percentage of capacity, claiming an average of almost 49,900 in 46,000-seat Amon G. Carter Stadium. Of course, attendance figures are about as accurate as claims of alien invasions, as they typically include tickets sold, not bodies through the turnstiles, and also include game workers. If the numbers are true, though, where's the fire marshal?
Sonny Dykes is the fastest TCU head coach to reach 16 wins at the school since Francis Schmidt, who was 16-0-2 in his opening 18 contests from 1929-30. No doubt some contingent of Horned Frog fans were ready to fire Schmidt for the two ties.
West Virginia forced\received a good break last week when Texas Tech got away from handing the ball to running back Tahj Brooks for much of the game. When the Red Raiders finally figured out that it could run the ball against WVU's light box (which was a strategic decision on the Mountaineers' part to limit big plays), they moved it well and nearly forged a comeback. By then, though, it was too late.
TCU isn't likely to make the same mistake. It has run the ball 169 times this year, opposed to 145 passes, and even with a few of those resulting from QB scrambles on called passing plays, there's no doubt that the Horned Frogs work off the running of Bailey to help open other areas of their attack. QB Morris is completing 69% of his passes this season (a figure that, if maintained, will be a TCU single season record), and much of that is due to the fact that defenses can't key on just one aspect of the Frog offense.
Will WVU try to stop the run first, which is the conventional approach? Or will it duplicate last week's strategy of trying to limit big plays and forcing the Frogs to drive the field? That's part of the fascinating back and forth of the game.
WVU has 19 pass breakups this year, including 10 against Texas Tech last week. It managed only 32 in 12 games in 2022.