Reporter’s Notebook: Pre-election potpourri
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As we head into Tuesday's midterm general election, my brain is a bit scattered. I leave coverage of House of Delegates and state Senate races up to local papers, but that doesn't mean that I am not watching from afar.
Just from my observation post here under the golden dome, there are a handful of Senate races I'm watching. While I do think there will be some Democratic pickups in the House, it won't be enough to really change how the House currently operates. But depending on who gets elected in the Senate, it could really shake up some coalitions and maybe even result in a new Senate president.
Take the 1st Senatorial District, for example. State Sen. Laura Wakim Chapman, R-Ohio, is seeking her second four-year term. Long-time Del. Shawn Fluharty, D-Ohio, is seeking a promotion to the Senate from the voters.
Fluharty has always won, but Democratic candidates usually do better in the cities. A House district is obviously much smaller than a Senate district with multiple counties. And those outlying counties tend to be more Republican.
With only the U.S. Senate and 2nd Congressional District races at the top of the ticket, the question will be this: Will Republicans turn out or stay at home Tuesday? If they stay home, that benefits Fluharty, who can expect support from moderate Republicans, Democrats, and many unaffiliated voters. As I write this, Republicans lead slightly in statewide early voter turnout.
What could be harmful for Chapman is her close association with Gov. Patrick Morrisey. At least two polls I have seen show Morrisey with low approval numbers, and his arm draped around a candidate could be a drag on that candidate's support by voters. Conversely, former governor and former U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin endorsed Fluharty. The Democrat-turned-independent Manchin isn't well-liked nationally by his former party and some Republicans, but I do think he still enjoys warm feelings within the borders of the Mountain State.
Another close race Tuesday night could be the 13th Senatorial District between state Sen. Mike Oliverio, R-Monongalia, and Del. John Williams, D-Monongalia. That race recently had a debate moderated by WV MetroNews and has gotten a bit ugly. I should note that both this race and the 1st Senatorial District contest have seen fights over House Bill 2014, the data center/microgrid district bill.
Data centers are controversial, regardless of what they really do or don't do. And the votes of Republican lawmakers for HB 2014 are being used against them. And those Republican candidates are citing votes by their Democratic lawmaker opponents for a rules bundle earlier this year that included legislative rules for HB 2014 as a positive vote for eliminating local control.
Voting yes on a rules bundle that has multiple agency rules in it as well as rules regarding implementation of HB 2014 is different than voting yes on HB 2014 itself - much like casting a symbolic no vote on a procedural motion regarding the general revenue budget bill but ultimately voting yes on the final bill. But the candidates hope that you, the voter, won't know or understand the difference.
Another race I'm watching is the 15th Senatorial District, where appointed state Sen. Darren Thorne, R-Hampshire, is being challenged by Democratic opponent Elizabeth Ferris. The 15th District is a mostly rural district consisting of the western portion of Berkeley County as well as Morgan and Hampshire counties.
Having observed Thorne since he succeeded now-Justice Charles Trump, he doesn't strike me as a loud person. In fact, I can't say I have ever heard him speak. He is the quiet farmer type, so I don't have a read on him. Ferris, a writer and teacher, is very much out there working the district and meeting voters and has a very active presence on social media. It could easily go to Thorne based simply on voter registration, but past data is not indicative of future results.
And of course, I have to mention the 12th House of Delegates District race. The Republican is the Morrisey-backed Charles Hartzog, who defeated House Finance Committee Chairman Vernon Criss, R-Wood, in the May GOP primary. But Criss is running a very aggressive write-in campaign, which could either see him swept back in with the support of regular Republicans and independents, or allow Criss to play a spoiler, paving the way for Democratic candidate Dennis Rempel. (There is also a Libertarian Party candidate, Stephen Thomas Smith.)
I won’t make any predictions because that’s not what I do. I am not prepared to say what will happen Tuesday beyond expect some new faces, including some additions to the Democratic caucus in both chambers. But good luck to all candidates, because it takes guts to put your name on a ballot.
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Look, mistakes happen and if you're like me who either throws away mailers (or burns them in my fire pit) you might not have noticed. But Black Bear PAC - the pro-Morrisey political action committee - or the mailer vendor they used apparently mixed up the mailers supporting Chapman in the 1st Senatorial District and state Sen. Anne Charnock, R-Kanawha, in the 17th Senatorial District in the Charleston area.
People in Wheeling opened up their mailboxes to find a mailer for Charnock, while people in the Charleston area had mailers for Chapman. According to Amelia Knisely at West Virginia Watch, the mistake cost around $20,000. That’s probably the equivalent of a clerical error considering how much money Black Bear PAC has, but still embarrassing.
Adding to that, a text by Black Bear PAC urging support for Charnock including a typo, spelling Virginia as "Viriginia."