Reporter’s Notebook: Blood in the water
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Politics is much like trying to swim with sharks. When there is blood in the water, the sharks get more aggressive. And I get the sense that Gov. Patrick Morrisey’s potential 2028 GOP primary opponents for governor sense that he is vulnerable.
Take the collapse of efforts to seek a federal Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campus after Morrisey declined to turn in a host agreement.
I won’t rehash again all those details; you can read my column from last week about all of that, but many see the governor’s handling of that – attacking media for pointing out the obvious that the state would have needed to plan for spent nuclear fuel storage had we been accepted, then backing away from the project after trumpeting it at the beginning of September – as a huge blunder. State Treasurer Larry Pack was one of those.
“West Virginia's future depends on a bold, all-in energy strategy,” Pack posted on social media on Oct. 1. “That means we must lead the nation in energy production to drive local economic growth. Our state, and the rest of the country, cannot afford setbacks and missteps like this.”
Flash forward to last week, when Morrisey announced the state would submit a proposal to NASA to be chosen for a new U.S. Space Force Academy, as well as a separate proposal to the U.S. Department of War for a new military facility focused on cyber warfare.
Secretary of State Kris Warner, who began soliciting input from stakeholders in a letter back on Sept. 12 for the Space Force Academy, naturally expressed concern about the seriousness of Morrisey after already falling flat on his face with the U.S. Department of Energy.
“The proposed Space Force Academy and a new military installation represent two of the most significant economic development opportunities West Virginia has seen in years,” Warner told WV MetroNews. “Both projects would require effective communication, coordination and timely formal responses from the Governor's Office.
“I hope the governor recognizes the magnitude of these opportunities and is prepared to move quickly and aggressively to position West Virginia for success,” Warner continued. “States across the country will be competing for these investments, and we cannot afford to be caught flat-footed."
That statement sure sounds like Warner, who has several children who have gone through the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado, doesn’t have much faith in Morrisey and the Governor’s Office to put together a package that can grab the attention of NASA and the War Department.
Of course, Warner and Pack are both rumored to be considering a 2028 GOP primary run against Morrisey, who is currently fundraising for a campaign for another four-year term. Both Warner and Pack continue to traverse the state, doing local media and meeting with business leaders and city/county officials.
No doubt they are seeing or hearing about Morrisey’s approval numbers. Amelia Knisely reported last week about polling from State Navigate which has Morrisey under water in the 1st Senatorial District (Northern Panhandle) and 8th Senatorial District (Roane and Clay counties, and parts of Kanawha, Putnam and Jackson counties).
I think State Navigate’s methodology is lacking. Internal polling I’m privy to (but not at liberty to cite) is actually worse for Morrisey. Polling released last week by a Democratic polling firm also confirmed that Morrisey’s favorability and job approval numbers were under water.
Morrisey and allies must be concerned about these numbers because there has been pushback for any reporter or media outlet who had talked about thesm. Don’t call me about favorability because I will not answer. People always quibble with the numbers when the numbers are not going their way.
Then, there is the elephant in the room: U.S. Sen. Jim Justice, the man who won two races for governor and his Senate election by landslides despite any number of negatives. He told those of us covering his visit to Constellium in Ravenswood Wednesday that he will make a decision on challenging Morrisey “real, real, real quickly.”
I don't know if Justice jumping in clears the deck for other candidates, such as Pack or Warner, but I can say this: Justice remains the best retail politician I’ve seen. Better than former President Bill Clinton. Better than former Gov. and Sen. Joe Manchin.
At Constellium, Justice did what he always does. He spoke off the cuff with Babydog in tow. He is folksy, plainspoken, and comes off as sincere, telling the Constellium workers how proud he was of the work they did with the Artemis Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft, including getting a little emotional. It’s not fake. Whatever one can say about Justice, his love for the state and for her people is never fake.
Workers lined up after to take photos with Justice and Babydog. I’ve covered a lot of Morrisey events both at the State Capitol Building and around the state. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a line to take photos with Morrisey or even shake his hand.
We’re still well more than a year out from when candidates can file paperwork to run for office in 2028 (though they can do pre-candidacy filings in order to raise money). Morrisey has time to make changes to how he governs, repair relationships with the Legislature and turn around any negative numbers. Two years is a long time in politics. But right now, there is no shortage of challengers that smell blood in the water, so Morrisey needs to stop the bleeding.