Reporter’s Notebook: Turn it up
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I cannot tell you how happy I was to be able to start wearing my pullovers and breaking out the light jackets. Fall is finally here, and with that comes the countdown to the November general election.
Looking at the calendar, we're less than 37 days away from Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The last day to register to vote or update your voter registration information for the general election is Tuesday, Oct. 13. You can do this with your local county clerk or with the West Virginia Secretary of State's Office online at GoVoteWV.com.
Early voting for the general election takes place Wednesday, Oct. 21, through Saturday, Oct. 31, Sundays not included. Be sure to check with your local county clerk for designated early voting locations or GoVoteWV.com, where you can also track absentee ballots, see a list of candidates, and other information.
This is a midterm general election, which means turnout is traditionally lower than a presidential election year. President Donald Trump will not be on the ballot (though it can certainly be argued that his and Gov. Patrick Morrisey's policies and job approval will be).
For example, turnout during the May party primary was just 21.02%. Take that with a grain of salt, because some of that decreased turnout was due to unaffiliated voters being unable to vote in the Republican primary this year. May primary turnout was also 2% lower than May 2022 primary voter turnout. That is despite a higher voter registration prior to the May 2026 primary.
According to a report on the primary released earlier this month by Secretary of State Kris Warner, Republican registration increased by 15.3% between 2022 and 2026 to reach 519,949 heading into the May primary, while Democratic registration fell by 17.6% to 326,962 during the same time frame. Non-affiliated voter registration rose by 13.5% to 301,919.
It's cliche and obvious to say elections come down to turnout, but it is true and, more specifically, it comes down to which party can turn out more of its voters and who can get more of the unaffiliated voters on their side. There may be more registered Republicans in the state (Republicans first took the voter registration majority from Democrats after January 2021) but after the expensive and vicious May primary, Republicans did not turn out for their closed primary.
According to the Secretary of State's Office, despite overall voter registration being up and the Republican Party's registration numbers growing, 27,775 fewer voters cast a Republican ballot between the 2022 and 2026 primaries -- a 22% decrease -- due largely to the Party of Lincoln closing its primary to unaffiliated voters for the first time in 40 years. Unaffiliated voters could still vote in the Democratic Party primary and it showed, with 3,588 more voters casting Democratic ballots in 2026 versus 2022.
With two special elections for the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals on the May primary ballot and a regular May election for Intermediate Court of Appeals, it's no surprised that the requests for non-partisan ballots also increased between 2022 and 2026. Also, there were no statewide non-partisan races in 2022.
So, the question is: Who will have the better turnout? There is most definitely a blue Democratic wave coming this November. Trump is at his lowest job approval rating. Dissatisfaction with the Republican-led U.S. House and U.S. Senate is at its highest. The price of goods remains high. Affordability has not really improved to pre-COVID levels. Proactive choices by the president (Canadian tariffs, the war with Iran) are not helping.
West Virginia might be a red state now, but many of those who switched from blue to red did so because they believed that Trump and his MAGA coalition would improve their lives. If those same voters think for an instant that they've been scammed, they'll stay home or they'll vote for a Democratic candidate. Registered Democratic voters in West Virginia will be absolutely fired up, especially if they think there is a chance of reversing their losses over the last decade in the state Legislature.
So, what will unaffiliated voters do? Many are fully aware that many GOP leaders in West Virginia did not want them to vote in their primary anymore. In the May primary, those voters sent a clear signal by voting against Morrisey's appointees to fill vacancies on the state Supreme Court, instead choosing a moderate Republican delegate (Bill Flanigan) and a retired southern West Virginia circuit court judge (H.L. Kirkpatrick).
Independent voters are the wild card heading into the general election. They could play a role in the slow pivot of the Democratic Party back to majority status in the Legislature, the Board of Public Works, and the state's congressional delegation. That won't be this election, but every journey begins with the first step.
Morrisey must see this, because he's been hitting the road over the last several weeks like a man whose own election is on the line, handing out grants and awards. He already has a less-than-friendly relationship with many in the Republican supermajority in the House. If Democrats add to the nine seats they hold in the House, that just means fewer friendly faces for Morrisey.
He has a better relationship with most Republicans in the Senate. But if the Democrats add to the two seats that they have, that complicates things. The November election could really determine whether the Senate is led by a pro-Morrisey faction or not. It could determine whether Morrisey can get any kind of agenda through the Legislature next two years.