(Cracking the Code with Greg Kozera - Photo Illustration - MetroCreativeConnection)

This week after doing a keynote speech in Cambridge, Ohio, Lynnda and I headed to Oglebay Lodge in Wheeling to attend West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey’s energy announcement by invitation. His remarks were similar to those made at the recent West Virginia Business Summit. Great leaders have a vision of where they want to go and share it with their people.

The governor announced his Comprehensive Energy Policy Framework to make West Virginia energy dominant. At the center of the policy is the governor’s “50 by 50” generation plan to increase West Virginia’s electricity capacity to 50 gigawatts by 2050, an increase of 15 gigawatts from what it currently produces. The John Amos coal-fired power plant outside of Charleston is the largest power plant in the American Electric Power system at 2,933 megawatts or 2.933 GW. To achieve the governor’s goals will require the construction of five power plants the size of John Amos or eight natural gas power plants like the 1.875 GW Guernsey Power Plant near Cambridge. The governor noted in his address, “PJM (the regional power transmission organization we are part of) will likely need 110 GW of new generation capacity just to keep pace with demand growth and aging retirements.”

Where will this new electricity come from? The governor didn’t give specifics. He expects all energy sources would be required, including nuclear and geothermal power. Leaders cast the vison. Wise leaders allow their people to figure out the how. Leaders don’t need to be the experts. They surround themselves with experts and give them the authority to be creative.

As a young manager, initially my people wanted to know how I wanted to achieve our revenue and safety goals. They were more experienced than me. Once they understood I didn’t want “yes” people and wanted their creativity, our organization became wildly successful. The leader gives people the vision and framework, allowing them freedom and creativity on how to achieve the vision.

In the environmental movement, I sense a lot of frustration from groups about lack of progress toward climate goals. These groups and the federal government in the last four years dictated the “how” to achieve the result and failed. In Europe, environmental policies sent manufacturing from the EU to places like China, whose emissions continue to increase and have yet to peak. Two years ago, Germany dismantled a wind farm to get to the coal underneath it because they needed more electricity. This was reported in Chemical Week. It never made the evening news in the USA, maybe because it didn’t meet the government and environmental group narrative. The USA has a lot of smart people who haven’t been allowed to fully use their creativity to achieve environmental goals.

Shale Crescent USA was a finalist for the 2024 Platts Energy Award for Energy Transition Downstream. SCUSA showed how use of natural gas reduces global emissions by bringing manufacturing to the USA under U.S. environmental laws. The USA has the largest market in the world. Manufacturing in the USA reduces transportation emissions and cost.

PJM needs 30 GW of load growth by 2030 to avoid blackouts. This needs to be baseload 24/7/365 power. SCUSA reported over two years ago that 95% of the power projects in queue to be built on the PJM system were intermittent wind and solar. At the same time, the government was promoting EVs and AI was replacing traditional Google searches requiring 10 times the power. At the West Virginia governor’s energy conference last fall, executives from PJM and two major power companies were asked, “Without major changes to the queue, can we can expect blackouts and brownouts by 2030?” Their response was, “Yes, yes and yes.”

At a conference in Virginia two weeks later, attended by many people from “environmental” groups, the PJM and power company executives danced around the question and gave vague answers. I questioned a friend from a Virginia engineering firm: “You know the truth. Why don’t you tell it.” He responded, “We don’t want environmentalist groups and the federal government mad at us.”

Common sense prevailed. On May 2, PJM selected 51 projects that can come online quickly and provide more than 9,300 MW or 9.3 GW of reliable power. The projects consist of 12 new construction proposals and 39 uprates of existing natural gas, coal, nuclear and onshore wind. Of the 12 new construction projects, six are natural gas, five are batteries and one is nuclear. This doesn’t guarantee we can avoid blackouts because these projects still need to be permitted and built. Generators and transformers have long lead times. At least now there is a plan in place that is responding to our need for power.

China has recognized that AI and data centers require a lot of electricity. They are continuing to build power plants, mostly coal. China’s emissions continue to increase. Visual Capitalists reported that in 2024 China generated more electricity than the USA, the EU and India combined.

The SCUSA (Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia) consists of power-exporting states. The rest of the 13 PJM states are power importers. The baseload electricity needed to meet power demand will need to come from natural gas until nuclear, geothermal and other power sources are developed. A natural gas power plant can be built fairly quickly once permitted. Gov. Morrisey said he expects additional coal power as part of the energy plan. This will also take longer to permit and build than natural gas. The SCUSA has abundant natural gas reserves and the capability to ramp up natural gas production quickly to meet new power demand.

The SCUSA has the energy for increased electric power and manufacturing. Pennsylvania and Ohio expect to have energy plans of their own. Power outages put lives at risk. We can keep the lights on in the PJM, create high-wage jobs, improve the global environment and raise the standard of living for people in the SCUSA. It starts with leadership and releasing human creativity.

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Greg Kozera, gkozera@shalecrescentusa.com, is the director of marketing for Shale Crescent USA. He is a professional engineer with a master’s in environmental engineering and more than 40 years of experience in the energy industry. Greg is a leadership expert, high school soccer coach, professional speaker and author of four books and many published articles.