Reporter’s Notebook: Coal for Christmas?
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U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin helped solidify my choice of him and U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito last week as the top newsmakers in 2021 when he officially torpedoed the current version of President Joe Biden's Build Back Better social spending program.
I say the "current" version because Build Back Better is like a shapeshifting alien. It's constantly changing shape depending on the needs of the moment or various concerns raised. It's a framework without a finished facade.
Sure, the U.S. House of Representatives passed an actual bill last month, but that was never going to be the final version of the bill. The President and Democratic leadership in the U.S. Senate were always going to have to contend with two issues: what the Senate parliamentarian will allow for the bill's path through the budget reconciliation process, and what Manchin could accept.
Everything you see going on right now is about negotiation and tactics. Leading up to Manchin's statement and TV and radio interviews last week, White House staff were putting the screws to Manchin to get him on board, at one point allegedly leaking that Manchin didn't support the child tax credit. When asked about this by congressional reporters at the time, Manchin lashed out at them. It's not that Manchin didn't support renewing the CTC, which is not expired. It was that he didn't support the version in Build Back Better.
It was the meddling of White House staff that pushed Manchin over the line and forced him to go on the warpath and state, "I cannot vote to move forward." And the left-leaning side of the nation went nuts, as if they all received a lump of coal from Santa for Christmas. But again, Manchin's statement wasn't a hard no on BBB as much as a negotiation tactic.
Despite accusations to the contrary, Manchin has been very consistent on what he can support in an omnibus social spending bill. Above all, he has stuck with a $1.75 trillion price tag. And by $1.75 trillion, he means a bill whose real price isn't really something else. Even if they had got Manchin to budge on the price to something slightly higher, the real cost would have been camouflaged.
The Congressional Budget Office put the real cost of Build Back Better as passed by the House at $4.9 trillion if the programs scheduled to sunset in the bill would continue for 10 years, while also adding $3 trillion to the deficit. Manchin has been raising concerns about the growing deficit for some time, remaining consistent. Why play budget gimmick games with a guy whose vote you need and who has been clear on his deficit concerns?
I really think that White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain and Biden's domestic policy staff, along with the progressive side of the Senate Democratic Caucus, thought Manchin would cave. They overplayed their hand and actually helped Manchin.
First, none of this drama hurts Manchin in West Virginia. While there are any number of programs in BBB that West Virginians could support and be helped by, many are concerned about the price tag and the reverberating economic effects. Heck, there are West Virginians still mad that Manchin, Capito, and 1st District Congressman David McKinley voted for the $1.2 trillion hard infrastructure bill, something the state desperately needs.
Second, now Manchin can set the terms when BB discussions pick back up again in 2022. Did you think it was dead? Not only is it not dead, Biden and congressional Democrats almost HAVE to pass something now to save face with voters during next year's midterm elections. If they only pass something based on Manchin's wants, it would still be a victory for Democrats. But do Manchin's fellow Democrats want to give him a win?
Manchin has acted like a heat shield in many ways, as it is believed that other Senate Democrats feel the same as he does. As I've said before, Manchin's power as number 50 in a 50/50 Senate only exists as long as there is a 50/50 Senate. If Republicans take the Senate in 2022, Manchin loses that power. And if Democrats pick up even one more seat and maintain control, I could see Manchin being put on the proverbial backbench.
But for now, Manchin is in the driver's seat.
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As the year comes to a close, I'd like to wish Charleston Gazette-Mail statehouse reporter Phil Kabler a happy semi-retirement. I understand that he is switching to the opinion side and remaining as a columnist.
Kabler has spent more than 36 years at the Gazette-Mail, most of which was spent covering state government. The Capitol Press Room has lost a lot of experience over the last decade with the retirements of former Beckley Register-Herald reporter Mannix Porterfield, former West Virginia Public Broadcasting news director Beth Vorhees, and now Kabler.
I guess this makes me the old man among what remains of the West Virginia statehouse reporters.
Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com