Reporter’s Notebook: Christmas potpourri
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Christmas is typically the time of peace on earth and goodwill to men, but 2nd District Congressman Alex Mooney is already rattling his saber against 1st District Congressman David McKinley in the 2022 Republican primary for the new northern 2nd District.
As I reported last week, Mooney has a couple of TV and YouTube ads running. One is a weirdly quiet 15-second ad that simply promotes Mooney's endorsement by former president Donald Trump. The other ad hits McKinley for being one of 13 Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives to support the $1.2 trillion hard infrastructure bill.
I'm not sure how the YouTube ads are being targeted, but the TV ads are exclusively in the Wheeling TV market for now. Traditionally, a new candidate trying to make a name for themselves puts out an ad as an introduction to new voters. Picket fences, flags, main streets, and the candidate talking about their life, their family, their values, and why they are running.
No, Mooney isn't a new candidate per se. He has represented the 2nd Congressional District since 2015 after Shelley Moore Capito won her first term for U.S. Senate after previously holding the 2nd District seat since 2001. Mooney is now in his fourth term.
However, the new northern 2nd Congressional District combines both the 1st and current 2nd districts. The voters of the current 1st District have never had Mooney on the ballot and have likely never paid much attention to him. The congressional map approved by the West Virginia Legislature in October takes nine out of 17 of the counties in Mooney's current district away while keeping all but one of the 20 counties in McKinley's 1st District.
Point being: Mooney has an education issue and needs to introduce himself to his potential new constituents. Instead, Mooney is hitting the airwaves with attacks on McKinley for supporting a bill negotiated by both Sens. Joe Manchin and Shelley Moore Capito, and supported by Gov. Jim Justice. Mooney's only introduction to voters is a video graphic of him and Trump standing side-by-side touting the endorsement.
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In a previous column, I said Mooney attacking McKinley for voting on the hard infrastructure bill could be an effective short-term tactic, but whether it would be effective in the long-term remains to be seen. I stand by that, considering polling I've seen shows that likely voters understand the difference between the $1.2 trillion hard infrastructure bill versus the changing price tag of the Build Back Better social spending plan (that as of this writing appears to be put on ice until after 2021).
Some of the short-term work could be working. According to internal numbers from the Mooney campaign, McKinley leads Mooney 42 percent to 39 percent. The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies between Nov. 8-10 with 400 GOP primary voters in the counties within the new 2nd Congressional District, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent, making the poll a statistical tie.
The poll also found Mooney more appealing than McKinley among very conservative voters (46 percent to 36 percent), supporters of constitutional gun rights (46 percent-34 percent) and strong supporters of former president Trump (48 percent-37 percent).
These numbers are different from a poll conducted by National Research Inc. between Oct. 23-26 with 400 likely voters in the new 2nd District on behalf of the GOPAC Election Fund, which showed McKinley leads Mooney 44 percent to 29 percent with 18 percent undecided. That poll also found both McKinley and Mooney remain popular in the counties that formerly made up their districts.
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West Virginia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to a new record low of 4.0 percent. That's great, though I would like to see the updated labor force participation rate. A low unemployment rate can mean new job growth, but it can also mean more people dropping out of the workforce completely.
The state's labor force participation rate has remained at 55.2 percent since June. The only state with a worse rate is Mississippi, our constant competitor for last place. The unemployment rate only measures those who are still looking for work. The labor force participation rate measures those actually in the workforce.
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I can't help being a little cynical about the announced 5 percent pay raise proposal and 2.5 percent one-time bonus for state employees that Gov. Jim Justice and legislative leadership announced last week. No doubt pay raises are needed to help retain state employees and entice new employees to agencies with shortages, such as Child Protective Services and prisons. We definitely have the money to do it.
But yet, 2022 also is an election year. Pay raises would likely secure some votes or at the very least pacify some state employees and teachers. They just received two back-to-back raises in 2018 and 2019. Perhaps the governor and lawmakers will consider some form of tax relief for residents given how full the coffers are?
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In closing, have yourselves a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It's been a challenging two years for all of us, but I do have high hopes for 2022. With a possibly less deadly COVID-19 variant and new COVID treatments set for approval soon, 2022 just might be when things return to some level of normalcy.
Knock on wood.
Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com.