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By the Numbers: Justice leads Mooney, Morrisey in new U.S. Senate primary poll

CHARLESTON — Pressure continues to mount on Gov. Jim Justice to enter the Republican race for U.S. Senate in 2024, with new polling showing a solid lead over U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney in a GOP primary match-up.

According to a poll released Monday by National Public Affairs, Justice would defeat Mooney, R-W.Va., in a theoretical two-way race 55% to 24% with 21% undecided. The poll took place between March 14 and 17 with 360 likely Republican primary voters, including both Republicans and independents.

In a theoretical race including Justice, Mooney, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and McDowell County native and former coal miner Chris Rose, Justice led with 42%, followed by Morrisey with 21%, Mooney with 10%, Rose with 2%, and 24% undecided.

“On the ballot test, Governor Justice has a significant lead — more than 20 points against a field of potential or declared challengers,” wrote NPA co-founder Justin Clark and Macy Stepien, vice president for polling and data. “Notably, he dominates in multiple scenarios – one-on-one and among a larger field.”

“These poll numbers reflect what we have seen time and time again. Governor Jim Justice is universally known, has the highest approval of any elected official in the state, and would be the strongest Republican candidate for U.S. Senate,” said a source close to Justice who declined to be identified.

Clark and Stepien wrote that Morrisey was included in the poll prior to announcing what many believe will be a run for governor in Harpers Ferry today, followed by a three-day state tour. A poll from a Morrisey-aligned political action committee by National Research Inc. in February showed Morrisey leading in a six-way race by 28% with 29% of respondents undecided.

Broken down by several demographics, Justice stays above 40% with both men and women, Republicans and independents, and all income levels. Of the possibly opponents included in the poll, only Morrisey comes closer to Justice, polling above 20% in all but two of the demographic categories.

“Governor Justice’s coalition extends across key demographic groups,” Clark and Stepien wrote. “This data cements his potential to unite the Republican coalition and draw in Independent voters in a 2024 general election scenario.”

When considering favorability, Justice polled at 77% favorability, while Mooney only polled at 47% favorability. Justice’s favorability remained above 75% in nearly all of the demographic categories polled, while polling at 81% favorability with respondents age 65 and older and 81% for those earning between $50,000 and $99,000.

Clark and Stepien pointed out that Mooney’s total unfavorability with independents could be an issue, sitting at 35% with independents. Mooney’s unfavorability with respondents younger than 45 was 41% and 26% with those in the $50,000-$99,900 income categories.

“Off the bat, Governor Justice has almost 100% name recognition with 77% total favorability – +60 net favorability overall,” Clark and Stepien wrote. “Seventy-six percent of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of him, and that outlook improves with respect to intensity: a majority (55%) have a very favorable opinion of the Governor. He over-performs among older, middle-class income earners while Representative Mooney has some serious problems with Independents, voters under 45 and those with a college degree.”

National Public Affairs was co-founded by Clark and Bill Stepien, former president Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign manager and former advisor for Justice’s 2020 Republican primary for re-election for Governor. Both Stepien and Clark also advised the Justice campaign in 2020.

The poll was conducted using both landlines and text messaging to web. The poll has a margin of error of plus-minus 5.3%.

Justice has frequently alluded to a run for U.S. Senate since the end of 2022, first stating he would make a decision by the end of February, then by the end of the 2023 legislative session on March 11.

Mooney, who defeated long-time 1st District Congressman David McKinley in the 2022 Republican primary for the new 2nd Congressional District, announced his run for U.S. Senate days after winning the November general election. Justice endorsed McKinley in the Republican primary, earning Mooney’s ire. Mooney was endorsed by Trump.

“We’re confident that when Republican primary voters learn about Jim Justice’s record of supporting Biden’s multi-trillion dollar spending agenda, proposing the largest tax increase in West Virginia history, and banning sporting rifles for adults that we will win the primary,” said John Findlay, campaign manager for Mooney. “West Virginians deserve a true conservative for U.S. Senator and Congressman Mooney’s record shows he is the only choice.”

Despite not officially being in the race yet, Mooney has attacked Justice on both social media and press releases, recently hitting the Governor for scandals involving the West Virginia State Police and the garnishing of his state wages for non-payment to a bank, and a request by a Republican state senator for the U.S. Treasury Department to investigate Justice’s use of federal COVID-19 dollars for use in the construction of a new baseball field for Marshall University.

This is the latest poll showing Justice with a strong lead in a possible Republican primary for 2024 U.S. Senate. The Tarrance Group conducted a poll in February on behalf of the Senate Leadership Fund – led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. – showing Justice being the best candidate to take on U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. The poll, first reported by Politico, shows Justice defeating Manchin 52% to 42% with just 5% undecided.

According to NBC News, Manchin will announce his intentions to either seek re-election for the Senate seat he has held since winning a special election in 2010 after the death for U.S. Sen. Robert C. Byrd, or other intentions, including a possible third-party candidacy for U.S. President.

“My filing date is Jan. 15 in 2024, and I will make my decision maybe a little bit before that — but not until the end of the year, I can assure you,” Manchin said on “Meet the Press” Sunday with host Chuck Todd.

Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com

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