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Manchin under water in new WMOV/Triton poll

CHARLESTON — A new poll released Wednesday by Jackson County radio station WMOV 1360 AM and Oregon-based Triton Polling and Research found that U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin is vulnerable after his support for the Inflation Reduction Act.

According to the poll, 66.1% of the 762 respondents had an unfavorable impression of Manchin, D-W.Va. Only 26.3% had a favorable impression of Manchin with just 3.8% unsure and 3.6% with no opinion either way.

The WMOV/Triton poll was conducted Aug. 24-26 with 3.5% margin of error. The poll was conducted by automated telephone, also known as interactive voice response (IVR).

The poll comes 24 days after the $737 billion Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law by President Joe Biden after Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., negotiated the latest version of what started out as Biden’s $1.75 trillion Build Back Better social spending bill.

The IRA includes $437 billion in spending on new investments in clean energy, climate change mitigation, healthcare and prescription drug price reform, and funding for western drought resiliency. It also includes $300 billion for reduction of the national deficit.

The law’s pay-fors include a 15% corporate minimum tax on book revenue $1 billion or greater reported by corporations on financial statements to investors, a 1% fee on stock buybacks by corporations, savings from prescription drug pricing reform, and funding to hire 86,000 additional IRS employees.

Manchin opposed Build Back Better late last year over concerns about adding to the national debt and inflation. But negotiations continued between Manchin, congressional Democratic leaders, Biden and the White House throughout 2022. Manchin put the brakes on negotiations in July after inflation climbed to 9.1%, but discussions between Manchin and Schumer continued, resulting in the IRA.

Manchin has stood by his work on the IRA, claiming it will save West Virginians money and reduce the effect of inflation if not the rate of inflation. He also used the IRA as a way to secure commitments from Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to move a bill later this month to reform the permitting process for natural gas wells and pipelines, including the long-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline.

High-profile Republicans, such as 2nd District Rep. Alex Mooney, have attacked Manchin for his support of IRA, even cutting a TV ad and writing op-eds. GOP leaders at the West Virginia Republican Executive Committee Summer Meeting in August made defeating Manchin – the last remaining statewide elected Democratic officials — when he is up for a third six-year term a top priority.

Despite having a low favorability number, Manchin picks up support when compared to possible 2024 challengers. The WMOV/Triton poll looked at some hypothetical matchups between Manchin and prominent Republican leaders in West Virginia.

If the election were held today, Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey would beat Manchin 49.5% to 36.2%, with 9.4% choosing to support a different candidate and 4.9% unsure. Morrisey challenged Manchin for the U.S. Senate in 2018, losing by three points. Manchin received 49.6% of the vote, while Morrisey received 46.3%.

In a match-up between Manchin and Mooney, Mooney would beat Manchin 44.9% to 37.9%, with 12.2% preferring a different candidate and 4.9% unsure. Mooney defeated 1st District Rep. David McKinley, R-.W.Va., in the May Republican primary for the new northern 2nd District after West Virginia lost a congressional district. Mooney faces Democratic challenger Barry Wendell in November.

Gov. Jim Justice would beat Manchin 46.5% to 32% if the U.S. Senate election was held today. Some of Manchin’s top political operatives recruited Justice to run for governor as a Democrat in 2016. He defeated former Republican Senate President Bill Cole and took office in 2017, switching to Republican later that year. Justice also fired Manchin’s wife, former first lady Gayle Manchin, as cabinet secretary for the now-renamed Department of Arts, Culture, and History.

Manchin was a vocal opponent of Justice’s going into the 2020 elections, supporting Democratic Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango for governor that year. But since then, Justice and Manchin have stopped publicly quarreling. Justice has not expressed any interest in seeking a U.S. Senate seat to date.

Looking at individual elected officials, 49% of respondents had a favorable impression of Justice, 35% had an unfavorable impression, 9.5% had no opinion of the two-term governor, and 6% were unsure. For Morrisey, 44.6% had a favorable impression, 39% had an unfavorable impression, 11.5% had no opinion, and 3.8% were unsure.

Respondents were also asked their opinion of two other prominent Republican leaders: Senate President Craig Blair, R-Berkeley, and Republican State Treasurer Riley Moore. For Blair, 9.4% had a favorable impression, 25.3% had an unfavorable impression, 35.4% had no opinion either way, 22.4% had never heard of Blair, and 7.5% were unsure. For Moore, 22% had a favorable impression, 15% had an unfavorable impression, 37.7% had no opinion either way, 18.8% had never heard of Moore, and 6.5% were unsure.

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