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MORGANTOWN -- When COVID-19 started depleting stockpiles of medical gear in hotspots like New York and New Jersey, the West Virginia National Guard took notice and reached out to experts at the John Chambers College of Business and Economics at West Virginia University to help prevent that from happening here.
Within days, the college and the National Guard developed a data-based model to forecast personal protective equipment use and surge conditions at hospitals and living facilities in West Virginia. The model, regularly updated, has kept the National Guard ahead of the PPE needs for the state's health professionals.
"This isn't your typical research project," said Brad Price, assistant professor of management information systems. "This is a moving target. And we're humbled that the National Guard feels comfortable enough to use this in their decision-making."
It started with a phone call to Price as he sat in his garage on a Saturday working on a lawnmower from Maj. Ryan Coss, also an adjunct professor at the Chambers College.
"When our task force was asked to lead efforts in developing plans for a PPE demand surge, the first person I thought to call was Brad," Coss said. "Having worked with Brad in the past I knew first and foremost that he had a passion for helping West Virginians. Secondly, I knew that Brad and the Data Driven WV team were equipped with the skills, knowledge and experiences that were required to provide an innovative solution that would bring immediate value to the entire state."
Price brought in Katherine Kopp and Dariane Drake, his colleagues with Data Driven WV, a partnership with WesBanco that supports the state by providing technical insights and analytic solutions.
Through the West Virginia Healthcare Association, the team uses survey data that includes current PPE numbers, projections on how long it will last, number of COVID-19 patients on site and other factors from medical facilities.
"There are a lot of epidemiological models out there but we locked in on a model that was built for forecasting hospitalizations," Price said. "We're not forecasting the people who have COVID-19, rather we're forecasting the number of people who will be going to the hospital and utilizing resources. We want to know, 'How many gloves will be used in a day? How many masks will they need?'"
The team's latest projections show that healthcare facilities will need 18 percent more N95 respirators and 17 percent more gloves than what's in the existing inventory.
"Having the capability to forecast PPE demand at a state, regional, county and facility level provides the West Virginia National Guard with a distinct operational advantage," Coss said. "The project has given us full visibility of our PPE inventory posture across the state which allows us to develop short, mid, and long-term plans to meet current and future missions."