I know vaccines work. Every day my paralysis reminds me that I was born before the polio vaccine was developed.
Why does West Virginia have the lowest vaccine rate of any state? What can we do better?
Starting Wednesday’s press conference, the governor alleged the head of Johns Hopkins taught him, “pandemics normally last for two years.” The Spanish Flu example can’t be generalized to COVID. This untrue statement undercuts the “get vaccinated” message of the press conference. Someone who believes predictions about COVID will also likely buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Clear statistics and accurate data are required.
Statewide new cases are reported on the dash board, but I can’t find Wood County data on the dash boards. The dash board uses a statistic with no definition called “infection rate” in the color coded county alerts. Even newspapers cannot explain what it is. It seems that the daily new case data is adjusted, so that many cases may be counted only one, to allow schools to remain open. It clearly does not track with daily new cases. The New York Times new cases 7-day moving average for Wood County was 92 on both Sept. 14 and Sept. 20 while the reported infection rate was 58 and 92 on the same dates.
Using West Virginia data, I calculate the Wood County daily new cases by subtracting the prior days total new cases as published by in the WV DHHR — news and announcements. However, even this method no longer is available because, on Sept. 20, DHHR changed the reported statistic from total cases to active cases. This happened on the same day the Gen. Hoyer thought the surge would peak. Are the dates a coincidence?
Wednesday, the governor also reported that someone else was double counting our vaccines; there were actually fewer people vaccinated than previously reported. The governor was surprised even though for some time the Bloomberg Report had a lower percentage of West Virginians vaccinated than the WV DHHR dash board.
Certainly someone who ran a large company knows how to present data to support his preconceived objectives of keeping schools, recreation, and businesses open without requiring vaccines or quality masks. Remember, even with good faith, as stated in the dash board notes, “All data is provisional and subject to change.”