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Justice leads Mooney, Manchin in annual West Virginia Poll

CHARLESTON — Gov. Jim Justice continues to lead in primary and general election polling for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. But while House Judiciary Committee Chairman Moore Capito leads for the first time in the Republican race for governor, many remain unsure of who to support next year.

The first several questions from the annual West Virginia Poll were released Friday morning on the final day of the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce 87th Annual Meeting and Business Summit at the Greenbrier Resort. The WV Poll, celebrating more than 40 years, is sponsored by the Chamber, WV MetroNews, and The Health Plan.

This year’s WV Poll was conducted between Aug. 16-26 with 402 registered voters from all 55 counties. While traditionally conducted through a combination of phone and online questionnaires, this year’s poll data was collected exclusively online with a 4.9% margin of error.

According to the poll, 58% of Republican voters support Justice for the 2024 Republican primary for U.S. Senate, with 26% of Republican respondents supporting U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., and 16% unsure.

“You can see it’s a pretty substantial lead,” said Rex Repass of Research America and the creator of the WV Poll. “Yes, it’s early. Yes, it’s a trial heat, but the data is pretty strong in terms of the viability of (Justice’s) Senate candidacy at this early date.”

In a head-to-head with U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., 51% said they support Justice compared to 38% for Manchin and 11% unsure.

“Obviously, as a person involved in doing political polling over my life, you want to see a candidate have a little stronger lead than 51% this early, particularly a sitting governor, but (Manchin) is a historically popular senator,” Repass said. “It’s going to be a tough race.”

Justice’s job approval number was 56%, with 29% not approving and 15% not sure. That’s down from a 2021 high, when Justice had a 61% job approval rating. Manchin had a 51% job approval number, with 34% not approving and 15% unsure. That’s up from a 42% job approval number previously.

Manchin has yet to announce his intentions to seek re-election to a third six-year term in the U.S. Senate. He has also toyed with a possible third-party run for U.S. President. But a plurality of respondents – 40% – believe Manchin should retire from public office after 2024, with 36% supporting his re-election to the Senate and 24% supporting a third-party presidential run. And of those supporting a presidential run, 34% said they would very likely vote for him, while 50% said they were somewhat likely and 7% saying not at all.

“It’s interesting because people are talking about what is Senator Manchin going to do in 2024,” Repass said. “So, we thought it was important to ask West Virginians what they prefer that he does. If it were up to them, what would they recommend?”

In the Republican race to succeed Justice as governor in 2024, 32% said they support Moore Capito, R-Kanawha, followed by Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (27%), Huntington businessman Chris Miller (9%), and Secretary of State Mac Warner (7%). However, 29% of Republican respondents remain unsure who to support.

“But the big number here is 29% undecided, and these numbers do include those who were at least leaning somewhat toward one of the candidates,” Repass said. “So, it is a big hurdle for all the candidates in the Republican race for governor in 2024. But at this point in time, it looks like that Moore Capito has a lead. And even if you take the margin of error into consideration, it may be a slight lead.”

The WV Poll also includes what respondents think of the major political party frontrunners for President of the United States. President Joe Biden’s disapproval number grew from 57% in 2021 to 66% in August, with 26% approving and 8% unsure. Biden is seeking as second term and the Democratic nominee for President.

Despite past popularity in West Virginia, for Republican president Donald Trump approval numbers have shrunk under the weight of several federal and state indictments. Trump’s approval number dropped from 56% in 2020 to 49% in the new WV Poll, though his disapproval numbers dropped slightly from 41% in 2020 to 39% in August.

“We wanted to look at this because he is running for president in 2024, and there’s not a redder state or Trumpier state than West Virginia has been,” Repass said. “But his approval rating as a candidate for office has dropped compared to his approval rating as president, which you would expect given what he’s facing right now.”

Steven Allen Adams can be reached at sadams@newsandsentinel.com

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