PARKERSBURG - One poll gives Republican John Raese the lead over Gov. Joe Manchin and another says West Virginia is again leaning Democrat in the race for the unexpired U.S. Senate term.
Publicpolicypoll ing.com Tuesday said if the election was today, Raese would best the Democratic governor 46 percent to 43 percent, based on responses from 1,397 people in an automated telephone poll conducted Saturday and Sunday.
"Our folks are jacked up," said Jim Dornan, Raese's campaign manager.
Rasmussen Reports, based on its findings from a survey on Sunday, said the race went from the Toss Up to again in the Leans Democrat category in its Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Manchin has a 50 percent to 43 percent lead over Raese, Rasmussen said.
Rasmussen polled 750 likely voters on Sunday. Two weeks ago Rasmussen called the race a toss-up with Manchin favored by 50 percent to Raese's 45 percent.
Sara Payne Scarbro, Manchin's campaign manager, pointed out Manchin's movement in the Rasmussen poll released Monday. Different polls taken until election day will have discrepancies between them, she said.
Questions and results from the poll by publicpolicypolling.com
- ?Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance: approve, 30 percent; disapprove, 64 percent; not sure, 6 percent.
- ?Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion: support, 27 percent; oppose, 63 percent; no opinion, 11 percent.
- ?Do you approve or disapprove of Gov. Joe Manchin's job performance: approve, 59 percent; disapprove, 32 percent; not sure, 9 percent.
- ?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Raese: favorable, 41 percent; unfavorable, 35 percent; not sure, 24 percent.
- ?The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. If the election was today, who would you vote for: Joe Manchin, 43 percent; John Raese, 46 percent; undecided, 10 percent.
- ?Do you approve or disapprove of the work Robert Byrd did during his time in the U.S. Senate: approve, 68 percent; disapprove, 23 percent; not sure, 9 percent.
- ?Would you like to see the next senator from West Virginia carry on Robert Byrd's legacy: yes, 52 percent; no, 33 percent; not sure, 15 percent.
- ?Would you rather Democrats or Republicans controlled the next Congress: Democrats, 37 percent; Republicans, 54 percent; not sure, 9 percent.
- ?Do you think the national Democratic Party is too liberal, too conservative, or about right: too liberal, 57 percent; too conservative, 8 percent; about right, 29 percent; not sure, 6 percent.
- ?Do you think the national Republican Party is too liberal, too conservative, or about right: too liberal, 23 percent; too conservative, 32 percent; about right, 37 percent; not sure, 9 percent.
- ?Who did you vote for president in 2008: John McCain, 58 percent; Barack Obama, 35 percent; someone else-don't remember, 6 percent.
- ?Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative: liberal, 13 percent; moderate, 42 percent; conservative, 45 percent.
- ?Respondents' gender: woman, 52 percent; man, 48 percent.
- ?Party affiliation: Democrat, 51 percent; Republican, 37 percent; independent-other, 12 percent.
- ?Race: White, 95 percent; other, 5 percent.
- ?Age: 18 to 29, 10 percent; 30 to 45, 22 percent; 46 to 65, 44 percent; older than 65, 24 percent;
Moreover, with an automated poll anyone in the household can answer the questions, including a child, Scarbro said.
The election on Nov. 2 "is the only poll that really matters," Scarbro said.
The results from publicpolicypolling are encouraging for Raese, Mike Stuart, chairman of the West Virginia Republican Party, said. It's significant that the pollster, despite its Democratic leanings, gave Raese the lead, Stuart said.
"Very Democratic," he said.
However, Manchin's attack ads indicate the race is close between the two candidates, Stuart said.
Tom Jensen, a spokesman for publicpolicypolling.com, said the results were surprising. The poll was not commissioned by Raese, Jensen said.
"I expected Manchin to be ahead, not by an overwhelming margin," he said.
Rasmussen Reports in July said Manchin would lead Raese by 51 percent to 36 percent in a hypothetical bout between the two. After the Aug. 28 special primary election, the lead dwindled to 6 percent, Rasmussen said.
The enthusiasm and anticipated success Republicans will have across the nation is now being felt in West Virginia, Dornan said. West Virginia is not pro-President Obama and Manchin has to carry that baggage, he said.
"The momentum is with John and his message," Dornan said.