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Approval numbers for Gov. Justice trending upward

CHARLESTON — It remains to be seen how the secondary road crisis or the recent subpoenas into the Greenbrier Classic affect future polling, but approval numbers for Gov. Jim Justice are on the rise.

According to Morning Consult, a survey and research company, Justice has a 50 percent approval rating in its quarterly rankings covering January through March, with 36 percent of respondents disapproving of the governor. It’s the highest Justice’s approval numbers have been since the end of June 2017.

Compared to other governors, Justice ranks 10th among governors with the worst disapproval numbers. However, Morning Consult’s Most Unpopular ranking doesn’t tell the full story.

When all 55 governors are looked at, Justice ranks in the middle with 14 governors having unfavorable ratings between 39 percent and 30 percent. Only four governors have disapproval ratings above 40 percent, while 32 governors had disapproval ratings below 29 percent.

When looking at the approval numbers, Justice ranks 22nd out of 50 governors. Comparing Republican governors, Justice ranks 18th out 27 governors.

Justice also had better approval numbers than three out of the five governors in the surrounding states. Gov. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, had 44 percent; Gov. Ralph Northam, D-Va., had 40 percent; and Gov. Matt Bevin, R-Ky., has a 33 percent approval rating. Bevin also has the highest disapproval rating among governors with 52 percent.

“It’s hard not to notice Gov. Justice’s strong standing, but we don’t pay much attention to poll numbers,” said Mike Lukach, campaign manager for Justice’s 2020 re-election. “We care a lot more about what the positive approval numbers mean: they’re proof that West Virginians strongly support Gov. Justice’s work with President Trump to create jobs in West Virginia, to improve the state’s roads and to protect our conservative values, especially the sanctity of life and the right to bear arms.”

Morning Consult has been tracking Justice’s approval ratings since taking office Jan. 16, 2017. Three months after coming into office after winning the 2016 primary and general election as a registered Democrat, Justice enjoyed a 58 percent approval rating, with 24 percent ranking Justice poorly.

Justice’s negatives went on an upward trajectory as the 2017 legislative session stretched into a special session that ended in June after Justice and the Legislature couldn’t agree on a budget proposal. At the end of June 2017, Justice had a 51 percent approval rating and a 34 percent disapproval rating.

By the end of September, Justice’s disapproval numbers were larger than his approval number after Justice announced he was switching from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in August 2017. Justice had a disapproval rating of 46 percent and a 41 percent approval rating. By the end of 2017, Justice’s approval numbers recovered slightly, with a 47 percent approval rating and a 39 percent disapproval rating.

The first two quarters of 2018, encompassing January through June, saw Justice’s negatives outpacing his positives. Justice’s disapproval rating peaked at 45 percent and his approval rating coming in at 41 percent.

During this time, the state saw a 10-day strike by teachers and school service personnel for better pay and security for the Public Employees Insurance Agency. In May 2018, the first headlines started coming out about the issues with the RISE West Virginia disaster recovery program, resulting in the West Virginia National Guard taking over the program and top officials at the Department of Commerce resigning or fired.

By the end of September 2018, Justice’s approval and disapproval rating was tied at 43 percent. Since then, Justice’s approval ratings started going back up. Justice’s approval rating went up to 45 percent by the end of 2018 and now sit at 50 percent at the end of March.

Since the start of the fiscal year 2019 in July, state tax collections have come in above estimates every month except twice during the winter. Justice also had a successful legislative session, getting most of his proposals across the finish line when the session ended March 9.

However, recent developments could affect Justice’s poll numbers going into Morning Consult’s next quarter poll at the end of June. Much attention has been placed on lack of secondary road maintenance. Justice fired former Transportation Secretary Tom Smith and put in new leadership focused on road maintenance.

Also, the U.S. Justice Department subpoenaed records and officials associated with the Greenbrier Classic golf tournament and Old White Charities, the organization that manages the tournament. It is still unclear what investigators are looking for, but Justice has said he is cooperating with the investigation.

The Morning Consult’s 2019 Quarter 1 Governor Rankings for West Virginia has a 2 percent margin of error for all voter polls and a 3 percent margin of error when broken down by Republicans, Democrats and independents. According to the Morning Consult, the poll includes 4,051 survey interviews from West Virginia voters.

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